Australian dollar tied to US inflation

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DXY is hanging in but does

North Asia is fading:

Oil and gold roared on the imminent attack upon Israel:

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Apparently, Israel has lots of copper, not:

Miners are the highway to hell:

EM is stuck at the point of control:

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Junk is trying:

Yields are bid on tomorrow’s US inflation

Which helped stocks that haven’t been able to breach the island top:

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Goldman is looking for another weak CPI:

We estimate a 0.16% increase in July core CPI (month-over-month SA).

Our forecast reflects further declines in used car prices (-1.5%) and airfares (-2.5%), as well as a modest decline in new car prices (-0.1%) after a rebound in incentives following last month’s disruptions to dealer software systems.

We expect another firm increase in the car insurance category (+0.7%) based on continued—albeit decelerating—increases in premiums in our online dataset.

We expect modest boosts from tobacco prices related to new taxes in Colorado and Maryland and from the partial-month impact of a postage price hike on July 14th.

After last month’s step lower, we assume another moderate increase in OER (+0.29%) and a partial rebound in primary rent (+0.33%), reflecting payback for the January spike in OER and drop in rent.

We estimate a 0.17% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.15%) and energy (+0.4%) prices.

That would certainly get the Fed cutting in September and DXY would likely gap lower and AUD higher.

Unless Israel blows up spectacularly.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.