Trump’s inflation is Australia’s deflation

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As is often the case, Australians are forced to look to foreign maniacs to address their interests over the policies of the Canberra suicide squad.

I have noted many times how China is often Australian punters’ friend ahead of their illustrious leaders.

Examples include Beijing shutting down the Chinese trade in Australian property in 2018, while Canberra was happy to price out youth.

Another is Beijing forcing Australia to diversify its trade base in 2021, which Canberra has just sold its soul to reverse.

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Now we can look to Donald Trump to deliver an exceptional range of policies that will reverse Canberra’s recent living standards smash.

At the top of the list is Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. 60-100% tariffs on China will crush Chinese export volumes to the US and dump its excess production everywhere else.

This will trigger a wave of goods import deflation in Australia.

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Less auspicious for the economy but most certainly deflationary, will be the tariff impacts on falling commodity prices as Chinese growth stalls and the US dollar rises.

This will be offset by deep falls in the AUD, which will again help us diversify our trade.

Next up are Trump’s inflationary immigration policies. He is proposing to slash illegal immigration and replace it with green cards for every foreign student studying in America.

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This will shred Australia’s international student trade, which has played a central role in the crushloading of renters, as well as flattening wage growth. Once again, US inflation will equal rising Australian living standards.

Finally, there is his reversal of LNG project approvals and pro-oil policies. These will pressure the local gas cartel to drop prices and help rescue Australia from the policies of energy superidiocy.

While also pressuring the oil price.

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Taken together, these policies represent a material deflationary wave approaching Australia in 2025/26 as, strangely and precisely, they undo the blundering of the Albanese Government.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.