The official ABS labour force survey continues to defy nearly every other labour market measure, recording strong employment growth of 50,200 in June and a solid 0.8% rise in hours worked:
Source: Alex Joiner
The number of jobs added was more than double economists’ estimates of 20,000.
However, the official unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% (from 4.0% in May) due to a commensurate rise in the participation rate.
By contrast, the official underemployment rate fell by 0.3% to 6.5%.
In short, there is nothing here to stop the RBA from hiking rates at its next monetary policy meeting in early August.
All eyes now turn to the all-important Q2 CPI print on 31 July. If Q2 CPI comes in hot, the RBA will likely hike. If not, it will remain on hold.
