Treasurer Chalmers spins wage growth fairy tales

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Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already presided over the world’s largest fall in real per capita household disposable incomes:

Real household disposable income per capita

But don’t worry. Treasurer Chalmers told this week’s Morgan Stanley Australia Summit that Australian “wages are growing at rates not seen for 15 years”:

“Wages are growing at rates not seen for 15 years, real wages are now growing again, and the combination of a resilient labour market, wage growth and tax cuts will support real income growth in the coming year”.

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Actually Jim, Australian real wages fell by 0.2% in the March quarter and have fallen a whopping 7.1% from their peak:

Australian real wages

The true situation is even worse when you consider that the wage price index doesn’t account for the extra tax lost through bracket creep:

Household taxes
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The real wage chart above is also deflated by headline CPI inflation, which was 3.6% in the year to March 2024.

However, headline CPI inflation was roughly half of the 6.5% increase in cost-of-living experienced by working households in the year to March 2024:

Cost of living index
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Stop lying Jim. Your government has presided over the biggest decline in living standards in modern history.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.