Macro Morning


Wall Street reopened from its mid week holiday, started with potential but lost ground as hesitation and confidence disappeared with tech stocks leading a mild selloff. European stocks however reengaged to the upside on the lower Euro as the Swiss Central Bank cut rates again while Yen made another multi decade low. The Australian dollar was caught on the back foot and has rolled over back down to the 66 cent level.

US bond markets reopened with 10 year Treasury yields dropping back about 4 points to the 4.25% level while oil prices were also muted with both WTI and Brent crude largely unchanged, the latter still above the $85USD per barrel level. Gold was able to breakout faster after looking lacklustre to just above the $2350USD per ounce level.

Looking at markets from yesterday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets are falling again with the Shanghai Composite down some 0.4% to barely remain above the 3000 point barrier while the Hang Seng Index gave up some of its recent gains, down 0.6% to close at 18335 points.

The Hang Seng Index daily chart was starting to look more optimistic with price action bunching up at the 16000 point level before breaking out in the previous session as it tried to make a run for the end of 2023 highs at 17000 points with the downtrend line broken. Price action was looking way overextended but this retracement is now taking some heat out of the market but needs to stop soon before moving into corrective mode:


Meanwhile Japanese stock markets failed to get out of their holding pattern with the Nikkei 225 up just 0.1% at 38633 points.

Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Short term resistance had been defended with short term price action now rebounding off former support at the 39000 point level with short term momentum still positive although futures are indicating a small lift on the open:


Australian stocks were unable to make any gains, with the ASX200 closing flat at 7769 points.

SPI futures are flat despite the falls on Wall Street overnight so we are likely in for a volatile session to finish the trading week. The daily chart was showing a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern forming with ATR daily support tentatively broken, taking price action back to the February support levels in mid April. Momentum is finally getting out of its oversold condition but has been unable to get back into positive territory with a return to the 7900 point level not yet on the cards:


European markets remain volatile but to the upside this time with a rebound that sent the Eurostoxx 50 Index more than 1.2% higher to close at 4947 points.

The daily chart shows price action off trend after breaching the early December 4600 point highs with daily momentum retracing well into an oversold phase. This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance still looming at the 5000 point barrier. Former ATR support at the 4900 point level looks like the anchor point here:


Wall Street reopened with a lot of hesitation and lack of momentum to make another record high with the NASDAQ closing 0.8% lower while the S&P500 lost 0.3% but stayed well above the 5400 point level, closing at 5473 points.

The four hourly chart showed the Friday night rebound coming up against a lot of hesitation at the 5300 point level with short term momentum ready to launch higher. The consolidation phase with a small breakout still has legs but this hesitation as seen trailing ATR support taken out and momentum almost flip into the negative zone:


Currency markets are now really feeling the effects of a dominant USD as Euro failed in its comeback after a week of downside volatility, pushing back to the very low 1.07 to match the previous weekly lows.

The union currency had previously bottomed out at the 1.07 level at the start of April as medium term price action with a reprieving reversal in price action back towards the 1.09 level before its own inflation print. There was really no chance of getting upside pressure moving here:


The USDJPY pair was able to make a new session high – and a multi decade low for Yen, breaching the 158 handle and almost pushing through the 159 level as it tears away on strong momentum.

Short term momentum had gotten out of oversold condition but was not yet positive with price action suggesting a further pause or rollover here before the print with this move taking the pair back to last week’s finishing point. This volatility speaks volumes as it pushes aside the 158 level as longer term resistance – is the 160 level next?


The Australian dollar is failing to get back to its post US CPI one off high at the 67 cent level as price action rolls over as it hits short term resistance even below that level, setting at the mid 66 cent level as of this morning.

So far the Pacific Peso hadn’t been able to take advantage of any USD weakness with momentum barely in the positive zone in recent weeks with price action whipsawing around the mid 66 cent level as a point of control. Watch the 66 handle to come under threat again however as this remains unconvincing:


Oil markets are almost out of correction mode with a small rally overnight on more Ruzzian refinery attacks as Brent crude pushes higher above the $85USD per barrel level.

After breaking out above the $83 level last month, price action has stalled above the $90 level awaiting new breakouts as daily momentum waned and then retraced back to neutral settings. Watch daily ATR support here at the $86 level which is still broken and will likely be resistance for sometime with short term momentum now well out of negative mode:


Gold is breaking out nicely after tracking sideways for weeks with price first firming around the $2330USD per ounce level before pushing above short term resistance overnight to close at the $2360 level this morning.

Still the biggest casualty of the US jobs report last week, the shiny metal has bounced off its weekly low with short term momentum now heavily overbought and price yet clearing short term ATR resistance to almost get back to the early June highs:


Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:

ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period

ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility

CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)


Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)

DOE: US Department of Energy 

Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out/wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!