IEA: Peak oil 2029, massive surplus ahead

Thursday 13 June 2024

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts well-supplied oil markets through 2030, but energy security remains crucial due to significant changes in the sector.

Future oil demand is expected to slow as energy transitions progress, but global oil output will rise, alleviating market constraints and driving spare capacity to levels not seen since the Covid crisis.

The analysis predicts that global oil demand will level off near 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.