Australia’s economic outlook worsens


The NAB business survey has been released, which paints a bleak picture of economic activity.

Business confidence slips back into negative territory and conditions are steadily deteriorating.

NAB business survey

Source: Alex Joiner

The next chart on forward orders foreshadows a fairly bleak outlook for economic activity in the near term:

NAB forward orders

The next chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro also shows that NAB’s survey is pointing to slower employment growth:

Employment growth

Firm profitability has also collapsed, suggesting lower employment:

Firm profitability

Based on this data, Q2 is shaping up even weaker than Q1, which delivered the slowest annual GDP growth since the early 1990s recession:

Annual GDP growth
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.