Australia doesn’t have the builders to meet housing targets

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In Tuesday’s state budget, NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey announced that the government would “build 30,000 new homes on government-owned land in a bid to make home ownership achievable”:

Daniel Mookhey Tweet

“NSW needs more homes”, Mookhey said. “More homes for renters. More homes for key workers. More homes for people escaping violence at home. More homes in metropolitan NSW. More homes in regional NSW. More homes close to public transport. More homes in the neighbourhoods people love living in”.

“Most of the new homes – 21,000 – will be built on surplus government land”…

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As independent economist Tarric Brooker indicated above, “the construction sector will increasingly struggle to stand on its own”, in reference to the government’s plan to spend taxpayer money to buy homes off-the-plan to fund development:

The bigger issue in NSW and Australia more generally is that we have an acute shortage of labour and building materials to service the planned number of homes and infrastructure.

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Where will these labour and material resources come from?

Instead of spending taxpayers’ money trying to build enough homes, how about lowering net overseas migration to a level that is commensurate with the nation’s ability to build housing and infrastructure?

Virtually all of NSW’s population growth comes from net overseas migration, as illustrated below:

NSW population change
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This extreme population growth has driven Sydney rents to the moon:

Sydney rents

The 2024 federal budget projected that NSW’s population will increase by 494,000 over the four years to the end of 2027, almost all of which will come from net overseas migration:

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Budget population projection

Source: 2024 Federal Budget

If allowed to continue, Sydney will literally transform into a high-rise apartment city:

Sydney dwelling composition
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Is this the future that Sydneysiders want? If not, cut immigration.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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