On Wednesday, Seek released shocking labour market data showing that the number of job ads plunged 4.7% in April to the lowest level since January 2021.
The number of applicants per job ad is also tracking around 70% above normal pre-pandemic levels:
The massive rise in the number of applicants per job ad reflects lower demand from employers (job ads) combined with record labour supply growth from the extreme levels of net overseas migration:
The following chart plots the number of applicants per job ad against the official unemployment rate. Obviously, unemployment is set to rocket:
The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that NSW, Victoria and the ACT have experienced the sharpest falls in job ads, which are each tracking below 2019 levels:
This is especially concerning for NSW and Victoria, given they have experienced the nation’s biggest influx of net overseas migrants, with 186,400 (NSW) and 161,800 (Victoria) net migrants landing in those jurisdictions in the year to September 2023:
As a result, the surge in labour supply (immigration) combined with the collapse in job ads (demand) has sent the number of applicants per job ad in NSW and Victoria soaring, with the ACT also looking sick:
It is only a matter of time before Australia’s official unemployment and underutilisation rates soar. The immigration epicentres of Sydney and Melbourne will also be the driving force.
