You can always trust the East Coast Gas Cartel to flood the market with propaganda.
Victoria’s Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, has warned that gas demand in the state may surpass supply by 2025 and yearly shortages by 2028 due to high winter weather.
The same warning has been issued by the Australian Energy Market Regulator (AEMO) for the entire East Coast:
However, gas producers argue that there is enough supply in the pipeline to prevent long-term shortages for decades.
Cooper Energy CEO Jane Norman claims there is no gas shortage in the state.
“It has enough gas resources to meet current demand for at least 25 years,” she said.
There might be if unconventional reserves were counted.
However, there is not much point in discussing Victoria in isolation, given that the East Coast is one gas market.
D’Ambrosio has criticized federal rules that allow Queensland’s massive onshore reserves to export gas to other countries without needing a domestic reserve, and she is right.
Those volumes should be flowing south to cover the 100Pj gap, as well as opening onshore Victorian fields.
Otherwise, any new volumes from Victoria will simply begin to flow north as the QLD shippers exercise their market power by purchasing all the new gas and sending most of it to China.
The same argument applies to LNG imports.
Besides, it is clear that the East Coast already has a gas shortage given spot prices are off the charts again with $1Gj gas going for $14.50Gj:
You have to plug the hole in QLD or the East Coast gas bucket will empty whatever you pour into it.
