DXY got trapdoored:
AUD busted out:
A little help from North Asia:
Oilmcactus, gold heaven on traditional drives now:
Copper loco:
Miners were softish:
EM to the mooon:
Junk risk on:
Yields flushed:
Stocks ATH:
Goldman wraps the data:
April core CPI rose 0.29% month-over-month, 1bp below consensus and the slowest pace since December.
The year-on-year rate fell 0.2pp to 3.6%. The composition of the report was encouraging, with a 31-month low for the primary rent gauge, declines in both new and used car prices, and much of the strength still coming from lagged catch-up in OER and car insurance.
After incorporating the details of the CPI report, we have left our April core PCE inflation estimate unchanged at +0.25% month-over-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of+2.77%.
We continue to expect the Fed to cut the funds rate by 25bps in July and proceed with cuts at a quarterly pace thereafter.
Core retail sales declined by 0.3%in April, against consensus expectations for an increase. Headline spending remained unchanged.
The Empire manufacturing index declined in May, against consensus expectations for an increase. The composition of the report was mixed, with declines in the new orders and employment components and an increase in the shipments component.
The April retail sales report was even weaker than our below-consensus expectations, and we lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.0% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +2.4%.We lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by 0.2pp to +1.3% (vs.+1.6% originally reported).
“No landing,” just crash landing into a pillow of marshmallows.
Be long, AUD, for now.
