I have warned repeatedly that Australia is not creating enough jobs to keep pace with record net overseas migration (NOM).
This record NOM has grown Australia’s labour supply by an unprecedented 2.9% (627,000) in the year to April:
Accordingly, Australia need to create nearly 40,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate stable, assuming a steady participation rate:
SEEK’s latest employment report showed that the number of applicants per job ad was running around 55% above their corresponding level in 2019:
The latest data from Jobs & Skills Australia, charted below by Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, also shows that Australia is awash with low-skilled workers:
This makes sense, given the record surge in international students:
Alongside the record surge in working holiday making visas:
Jobs & Skills Australia also reported that employment intentions dipped lower in April. But at least employers are not looking at retrenching workers:
The data presented above suggests that there are far too many new workers chasing too few jobs.
Accordingly, Australia’s unemployment and underemployment rates will continue to drift higher, while wage growth will slow as bargaining power shifts back to employers.
