Rental vacancies halve amid record population boom

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The latest rental vacancy rate data from PropTrack shows little respite for Australian tenants.

The national vacancy rate in March was just 1.11% which, although a slight improvement on February, was the second lowest result on record across the combined capital cities:

“Rental conditions saw a slight improvement in March, though renters should expect little respite given vacancy rates remain close to historic lows in most markets”, PropTrack economist Anne Flaherty said.

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“Vacancy across Australia’s combined capital cities was at the second lowest level on record in March, with just 1.08% of rental properties
sitting vacant”.

Australian population change

Flaherty blamed unprecedented net overseas migration, which clocked in at a record 549,000 in the year to September, for halving rental vacancy rates since the start of the pandemic.

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“High levels of migration, primarily focused across Australia’s capital cities, has driven increased demand for rentals. Over the past four
years, the number of vacant homes has fallen by 58% across the capital cities and by 47% in regional areas”, Flaherty said.

The latest monthly arrivals and departures data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that net overseas migration accelerated into 2024:

Surging net migration
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So, too, does the latest temporary visa data from the Department of Home Affairs, which hit record-high numbers in February:

temporary visa holders

Meanwhile, the outlook for housing supply continues to darken, with dwelling approvals collapsing to their lowest level since April 2012, with only 12,400 homes approved for construction in February in trend terms (149,000 homes a year in annualised terms):

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Dwelling approvals Australia

Monday’s housing finance data from the ABS also showed that the number of loans issued for the purchase or construction of new homes remains at historically low levels:

Loans for the purchase or construction of new homes
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New home sales have also collapsed:

New home sales

With immigration demand continuing to swamp housing supply, Australia’s rental crisis can only worsen.

The Albanese government’s mad immigration program is throwing Australian renters to the wolves, forcing many into financial stress, group housing, or homelessness.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.