IMF forecasts grinding recession for Australia


The December quarter national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded that GDP per capita fell by 1.0% in 2023:

Per capita GDP

Real per capita household final consumption also fell by 2.5% in 2023, which drove the 0.3% annual decline in per capita final demand:

Australian final demand

Meanwhile, real per capita household disposable income in Australia plummeted by 6% in 2023—one of the worst performances in the world:

Household disposable income

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, which forecasts economic growth of only 1.5% for Australia in 2024 and 2% next year.


Thus, Australia’s growth will lag other advanced nations in 2024 but slightly exceed their growth next year:

IMF World Economic Outlook

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2024)

The difference is that Australia’s population growth is far higher than most other advanced nations:

Population growth

Source: Alex Joiner

Therefore, Australia’s growth will lag even more poorly in per capita terms.

Australia’s population is sure to grow by more than 1.5% in 2024, so Australians can look forward to a second consecutive year of recession.


The only thing covering up the economy’s cracks is the Albanese government’s extreme immigration, which is lifting top-line growth while you individually slide backward.

Australian NOM
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.