The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported in its most recent national accounts that GDP per capita fell by 1.0% in 2023:
Worse, real per capita household final consumption fell by 2.5% in 2023, suggesting that the household sector has driven the downturn:
This view is supported by data on real per capita household disposable income, which fell by 6% in 2023, ranking among the sharpest drop in the world:
According to recent survey data, Australia’s per capita recession has dragged into the first quarter of 2024.
The February Household Spending Indicator (HSI) from the ABS revealed that, in nominal terms, household spending grew by 3.6% through the year, which was lower than the combined rates of quarterly CPI inflation (3.6%) and population growth (circa 2.5%):
CBA’s Household Spending Insights (HSI) indicator for March 2024, which is based on transactions across 7 million CBA bank accounts, also grew by only 3.4% year-on-year:
The latest Melbourne Institute nowcast of Q1 GDP growth remained at a weak +0.2% q/q, according to Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, which is well below population growth and points to a continuation of the per capita recession:
Australia’s economic pie has continued to grow due to rapid population growth, but everyone’s share continues to shrink, alongside living standards.
