DXY eased:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/1-26.png)
AUD popped:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2-13.png)
No help from North Asia:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/3-11.png)
Oil bull:
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![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/4-8.png)
Dirt bull:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/5-6.png)
Mining bust:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/6-6.png)
EM false break out:
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![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7-5.png)
Junk is warning:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/8-6.png)
Yields eased:
![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/9-5.png)
Stocks puked:
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![](https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/10-3.png)
Weirdly, it is a battle between dovish Fed speakers pushing down DXY and an oil bull run that has mounting geopolitical tailwinds, and dovish Fed speakers behind it. UBS has more:
- Rally / buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close – suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be upweighted in the index
- Geopolitics – reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.
- Bullish consensus and flow – a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about upside risk toward the $95-100 range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed toward upside buying in the options space
- Technicals – Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment.
The more dovish the Fed gets, the more hawkish oil becomes.
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I can’t see AUD getting very far in this environment.