Australia’s population increased by a record 660,000 people in the year to September, which is roughly 1.5 times the size of Canberra.
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released net permanent and long-term arrivals figures for February, revealing record arrivals on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis.
An unprecedented 105,460 net permanent and long-term arrivals landed in February, with 173,370 arriving over the quarter:
Over the year to February, there were 1,136,770 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, offset by 638,500 departures:
As a result, there were a record 498,270 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia over the year to February:
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, provided the following chart showing that the official quarterly net overseas migration figures will remain at historically high levels based on this data:
Source: Shane Oliver
This data should send a shiver through the spines of all Australian renters, given it has arrived amid the collapse in dwelling approvals, which fell to 12-year lows in February at an annualised rate of only 149,000:
Rental vacancy rates are already tracking at record lows, driving rental inflation into the stratosphere.
Near-record net overseas migration will make the situation much worse.
It also spells bad news for the labour market, which is already experiencing massive growth in the number of applicants per job ad:
According to Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, labour supply will continue to grow strongly, placing upward pressure on the unemployment rate:
Source: Alex Joiner
The only sliver of good news is that the number of visas issued is declining:
As the below chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows, net visa arrivals tanked in March based on provisional data:
International students drove this decline, likely related to the tightening of visa requirements and rising rejection rates:
Thus, net overseas migration should decrease this year, even though it will remain historically high.
I discussed these results in an interview this morning with Tom Elliott at Radio 3AW:
