Westpac’s credit card index is a decent leading indicator for consumption.
The Westpac Card Tracker Index* has softened slightly over the second half of February, easing to 127.8 over the week ended February 24 from 128.5 in the second week of the month. That is a firmer level compared to the weakness seen through Nov-Jan, which averaged monthly reads in the 120-125 range, albeit with some spikes around major sales events like Black Friday.
In growth terms, card activity is holding about flat, representing a stabilisation from the declines seen around year-end. While both Jan and Feb look to have recorded decent gains, the latest weekly reads and the quarterly growth pace – our ‘benchmark’ for underlying trends – are both tracking close to zero. Allowing for price increases and population growth this remains consistent with material declines in real, per capita spend in the order of –1%qtr/
