AEMO with the news.
During Australia’s transition to a net zero emissions future, gas will continue to be used by Australian households, businesses and industry, and support the reliability and security of the electricity sector.
The 2024 GSOO continues to forecast risks of shortfalls on extreme peak demand days from 2025 and the potential for small seasonal supply gaps from 2026, predominantly in southern Australia, ahead of annual supply gaps that will require new sources of supply from 2028. Gas consumption by residential, commercial and industrial consumers is forecast to decline, but production in the south is forecast to decline faster.
While the scale of gas consumption remains uncertain through the energy transition, particularly in relation to gas usage for electricity generation, all scenarios identify the urgent need for new investments to maintain supply adequacy. Gas inadequacy risks over the short, medium, and long term include:
• From 2025, risks of shortfalls on some days in winter are forecast in southern Australia under extreme peak demand conditions, if extreme weather conditions drive very high demand for heating, coincident with high demand for gas-powered electricity generation (GPG). Deep and shallow gas storages are vital to meeting peak demands, while also providing seasonal flexibility, and the ongoing availability of stored gas ahead of winter conditions continues to be important to mitigate adequacy risks.
• Northern producers need to deliver anticipated supplies, and from 2026 investments in currently uncertain supply will be needed to meet domestic requirements and export positions.
• In 2026 and 2027, the potential for small seasonal supply gaps are forecast in each winter in southern Australia under sustained high gas usage conditions.
• From 2028, the forecast annual supply gaps increase in magnitude as southern production declines, meaning a more structural need for anticipated and currently uncertain new supply develops, despite declining residential, commercial and industrial consumption.
• From the mid-2030s, the forecast level of GPG increases as coal generators are forecast to retire through the energy transition, as outlined in the Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP). Further consideration of these forecasts, along with market and policy settings, is warranted.
• Various solutions are being considered by industry that may address these risks. In this GSOO, AEMO has included assessment of several potential future supply, storage and transportation options, to provide additional information on potential investments and their impact on gas adequacy. All options assessed
delay annual supply gaps and help mitigate the risk of peak day shortfalls, but to varying degrees. This assessment does not represent a merits or cost-benefit assessment of one option over another and has not considered the viability of each based on current market settings. Based on current forecasts, a combination of solutions will be required in the long term.
This is ridiculous. Our gas demand is going to rocket as coal shutters:
While Bass Strait runs dry:
Leaving us seasonally short:
As China steals all remaining reserves via the East Coast Gas Cartel:
Reserve 15% of the exported gas or commit treason in the form of a permanent local energy shock.
Those are your choices.
