Politicians cannot be trusted to fix housing

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In this week’s Treasury of Common Sense with Radio 2GB’s Mike Jeffries, I discussed NSW Premier Chris Minns’ faux concern over Sydney’s housing crisis, which comes amid his lobbying the federal government for even more immigration!

Below are highlights from the interview.

Edited Transcript:

NSW Premier Chris Minns this week Tweeted about how it’s terrible that so many young Sydneysiders are leaving Sydney.

Chris Minns Tweet
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It was based on the New South Wales Productivity Commission, which showed that about 40,000 households aged between 30 and 40 left Sydney in the last census period.

Sydney net migration

Minns said he is going to fix the problem by rezoning Sydney into high density to get supply going because the young people of Sydney deserve to be able to live in this city like their parents did and their grandparents dis.

I get his concern. Sydney’s housing is it a disgrace. It’s got the highest house prices in the country. The median house price is about $1.6 million, according to Domain.

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Sydney median house price

The median asking rent in Sydney is over $750 for units and it’s over $1,000 a week if you want a detached house.

SQM asking rents
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So, housing is extraordinarily expensive and that is driving people out Sydney.

The problem I’ve got with Premier Minns is that in September last year, he fully backed the Albanese government’s record immigration program and said that he actually wanted more immigration into New South Wales.

So, on the one hand, he’s bemoaning the lack of supply and expensive housing in Sydney. But on the other hand, less than 6 months ago, he was lobbing the federal government for even more immigration on top of the record immigration that we’ve already had.

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Just to put the numbers into perspective, the New South Wales population last financial year, which is the most recent data, grew by 174,000 people. And guess what, net overseas migration into New South Wales was 176,000.

NSW population growth

The demand is been juiced through immigration.

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In fact, in the decade to June 2023, which is the most recent data, New South Wales added 935,000 people. And guess how many of those came from net overseas migration”? It was 791,000, which is 85% of the population increase.

NSW decade population change

Any talk of a housing supply problem in Sydney gets back to this problem of excessive population growth through immigration.

And while Premier Minns is complaining about the supply situation, saying we have got to upzone everything into high-rise apartments, on the other hand he’s lobbing the federal government for even more immigration, which is going to make the whole situation worse.

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You don’t fix a supply problem by fire-hosing in more demand. That’s crazy. He’s gaslighting us.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.