Andrew Bolt interviewed me on Sky News where I explained the Albanese government’s epic failure on immigration and housing, which is driving rents into the stratosphere and pushing Australians into homelessness.
Andrew Bolt:
The Albanese government last year said immigration would fall. But the January figures are a record, more than 55,000 new migrants – a record for any January. Why is that?
Leith van Onselen:
They are absolutely crazy numbers. If you multiplied that by 12, it gives you an annual figure that’s about 660,000 in a year. At’s also the highest January on record. It smashed last year’s January, which was about 21,500. And that was in a record immigration year.
Chart by Tarric Brooker
All indicators now are pointing to immigration running well past the Albanese government’s projection of 375,000 this financial year.
Not only last week’s numbers, but also the national accounts for the December quarter, which showed that Australia’s population grew by 680,000 people last calendar year, up from 624,000 in the latest official data for 2022-23.
So, immigration is still rising.
Andrew Bolt:
Is there a clear link between the housing shortage we now have and this incredibly high rate of immigration?
Leith van Onselen:
Absolutely, there is. Anyone who denies it is basically a knucklehead or a liar.
Rents fell at the start of the pandemic when immigration turned negative, and we’ve had rents absolutely explode, up by about 38%, after immigration was rebooted to record levels.
I mentioned before that the population grew by 680,000 last calendar year, according to the ABS.
At the same time, ABS data released last week showed that we only added 166,000 homes to our housing stock.
So, that means we only added around one home per 4.5 new residents last year. And that is why we have a rental crisis.
Projections released today by the Urban Development Institute of Australia suggest that it’s going to get even worse, and they projected that only 79,000 homes will be built across the combined capital cities in 2026, which is about 26% below what we built last year.
So housing supply is going the wrong way at the same time as immigration and population growth are still running at these extreme levels.
All that means is that the rental crisis is going to keep getting worse. We’re going to have rents rise. We are going to force people to live in group housing. And there will be more homelessness unless they get these immigration numbers under control.
It’s as simple as that.
Andrew Bolt:
What should the government be doing on immigration?
Leith van Onselen:
Anyone with a shred of common sense would know that the government should be reducing immigration to a level that is below the nation’s ability to build homes and infrastructure.
Unfortunately, they are doing the opposite. And I suggest that net overseas migration needs to come down to – at a minimum – below 150,000 a year. I’d prefer more like 120,000 a year.
That would give us the ability to actually catch up on the housing shortage and ensure that Australians are housed properly and that we keep up with infrastructure.
Because, the way it is going at the moment, we are a dog chasing its tail economy.
We can’t keep up and the situation just keeps getting worse. Housing, infrastructure, living standards, everything.
Andrew Bolt:
Why do you think it isn’t doing something effective already to cut immigration?
Leith van Onselen:
The federal government loves immigration for two reasons.
First, it gives the illusion of growth and the illusion that the economy has avoided recession. Even though we’re all going backwards individually in per capita terms.
The federal treasury also loves immigration because it boosts tax receipts.
So, the federal government collects about 80% of taxes. It collects all the personal income taxes and company taxes.
Those all get juiced by immigration because you have more people spending and obviously paying taxes.
The problem is that the costs are then shunted onto the state governments and onto you and I.
So, immigration is an easy way to grow the economy and federal budget revenues while the costs are deferred to everyone else.
And that’s why the federal government keeps running this mad policy.
