PropTrack has released its dwelling value results for February, with values nationally rising by 0.45% over the month to be 6.15% higher year-on-year:
Combined capital city values rose by 0.48% in February, whereas values rose by 0.36% across the combined regions.
In the year to February, the combined capital cities recorded a 7.06% increase in values, whereas the combined regions recorded 3.90% annual growth.
Commenting on the results, PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh noted:
“The slowdown in home price growth recorded toward the end of 2023 has reversed this year, with prices hitting a new peak in February”.
“More homes have hit the market this year, but demand has kept up with that increase. The expectation that interest rates will fall in the second half of 2024 is likely providing a positive tailwind for activity”.
“Housing demand is also being buoyed by population growth, tight rental markets, resilient labour market conditions and recent home equity gains”.
“Meanwhile, the sharp rise in construction costs and labour and materials shortages have slowed the delivery of new builds, hampering the supply of new housing”.
“Looking ahead, the positive tailwinds for housing demand and a slowdown in the completion of new homes are likely to offset the impact of reduced affordability and a slowing economy. As a result, prices are expected to lift further in the months ahead”.
The most interesting statistic from the release is the revelation that Brisbane’s median dwelling value is now equal to Melbourne’s at $797,000.
This reflects two factors. First, Brisbane has recorded 60.7% growth since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, versus only 16.5% growth across Melbourne:
Second, Brisbane has a far higher share of detached houses than Melbourne, which are more expensive that units and, therefore, pull Brisbane’s median dwelling value up.
This fact is evidenced in the next table from PropTrack showing that Brisbane’s median house price was $892,000 in February, below Melbourne’s median house price of $909,000:
Regardless, given that Brisbane home values are projected to grow much faster than Melbourne’s this year, it won’t be long before Brisbane’s median house value overtakes Melbourne’s.
For example, ANZ has forecast 9-10% growth for Brisbane this year, versus only 2-3% growth for Melbourne:
In a similar vein, NAB has forecast 7.7% price growth for Brisbane this year, versus only 2.6% growth for Melbourne:
Brisbane is fast losing its affordability advantage over its larger southern counterparts.
And Hellbourne is going nowhere.
