Australian households driven deeper into recession

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the national accounts for the December quarter, which recorded aggregate GDP growth of only 0.2%, below economists’ and RBA expectations of 0.3% growth.

Over the year, the nation’s GDP grew by only 1.5%.

National accounts

Source: ABS

Government spending continued to drive growth:

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Domestic final demand contributed just 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by consumption.

Consumption contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth. Government consumption rose 0.6% to be 2.7% higher through-the-year. Household expenditure (+0.1%) had a small rise.

Investment detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth, with both private (-0.2%) and public investment (-0.2%) falling over the quarter.

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Changes in inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from growth, recording a $2.7 billion run down in the December quarter.

Mining inventories declined as coal inventories were run down to meet rising international demand. Wholesale Trade inventories also experienced a run-down driven by weaker grain production.

Contributions to growth

Source: ABS

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Australian households hammered:

The next chart shows that GDP per capita fell by 1.0% in 2023:

Per capita GDP
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Of most importance, Australian households continue to go backwards at a rate of knots.

The next chart shows that real per capita household final consumption plunged by 2.5% in 2023, which drove the 0.3% annual decline in per capita final demand:

Australian final demand
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Clearly, Australian households are faring worse than the broader economy and are mired in recession.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.