Aussie inflation continues to fall

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There is further good news on the inflation front, with the Melbourne Institute’s (MI) Inflation Gauge for February recording a 0.07% decline:

MI inflation gauge

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

The three-month annualised rate is also encouraging, falling to 1.2% in February from 1.5% in January.

Over the year, the MI’s inflation gauge fell to 4.01%, which was a 22-month low:

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MI annual vs ABS

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

The core measure, trimmed mean inflation, rose only 0.12% m/m in February (prior +0.2% in January):

MI inflation gauge Trimmed mean

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

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Over the year, trimmed mean inflation rose by 4.0% y/y (prior 4.4%):

MI vs ABS inflation

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

Excluding volatile items, the MI inflation gauge fell by 0.32% in February:

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MI inflation ex volatiles

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

Annual MI inflation excluding volatile items, fell to 4.16%:

MI inflation ex volatiles

Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

Australia’s inflation continues to trend lower, which augers well for rate cuts later in the year.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.