SQM Research: “no end in sight to the rental crisis”

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SQM Research has released rental vacancy rate data for January, which declined a sharp 0.2% over the month but was 0.1% higher than a year earlier:

SQM vacancy rates

Meanwhile, capital city asking rents increased by 1.4% in the 30 days leading up to 14 February 14 2024, bringing the 12-month increase to 13.1%.

National rents rose across nearly all regions throughout the reporting period, “indicating no end in sight to the rental crisis as at the start of 2024”.

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The national median weekly asking rent for a dwelling is $614.54, with Sydney having the highest weekly rent for a property at $1,037.08 per week.

SQM asking rents index

Commenting on the results, SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, noted:

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“Our rental market update today reveals a sharp decline in rental vacancy rates cross the nation”.

“Most likely the fall in rental vacancies was driven by increased demand from tertiary students following the start of campus semesters for 2024. As well as graduates entering the workforce for the first time”.

“It is a seasonal demand increase we see at the start of each and every year but is most certainly problematic due to the fact the current rental market remains in crisis”.

“Going forward, our best-case scenario for renters is that the population growth rate slows considerably this year to an increase of about 360,000 people which would likely mean a stabilisation in rents starting from the June quarter”.

“The worse case is population continues to boom at current rates”.

For what it’s worth, I am tipping a calendar year increase in Australia’s population of around 450,000, down from 626,000 last financial year.

Hence, the rental crisis will roll on.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.