We have noted repeatedly how Australia’s unemployment rate will likely shoot up this year as employer demand for workers slows and labour supply grows briskly via strong net overseas migration.
This puts MB at odds with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP), which forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate would only rise to 4.3% by the end of the year, just 0.4% above its level of 3.9% in December.
The key forward-looking indicator is shown below by Seek. It shows that the number of applicants per job ad has rocketed to well above the pre-pandemic level:
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