Australian dollar calls the Fed’s bluff

DXY fell:

AUD dumped then pumped:

North Asia helped:

Oil slumped on Gaza peace hopes:

Metals followed:

Miners meh:

EM meh:

Junk meh:

Treasuries do not believe Jay Powell hawkishness:

Which lifted stocks:

US data was decent, with the ISM and construction spending printing above expectations:

But it should still not lift DXY.

The market is calling Jay Powell’s hawkish bluff. This is AUD bullish at the margin.

However, last night’s also shows the risks. The downside break was severe before the rally took hold.

A range-bound AUD with downside risks is now my outlook.