DXY faded Friday night:
AUD finally caught a bid:
As did north Asia:
Oil and gold are still struggling:
Sodden dirt lifted a little:
Miners are the odd man out:
EM stocks are being slain by the Chinese structural rerating:
The credit recovery has stalled, raising the stakes for stocks:
Yields fell a touch:
Stocks rampaged higher. S&P is at a record high:
Last week, the AUD bears roared back on CFTC. There is room for more falls here if markets so desire:
Things are going pretty much as expected for AUD. The uptrend is still intact, but the headwinds from the death of China are mounting, making it very volatile.
My guess is the base case is still higher as the Fed begins to cut, but the risk case of the AUD being shot down by China is fast developing.
After all, the AUD diverged from SPX in early 2023, and the recent recoupling is already in trouble:
Iron ore might be the key.
