The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for December, which fell 2.7% over the month to be only 0.8% higher over the year.
Source: ABS
The result was far worse than analysts’ expectations (-0.9% month-on-month), with the annual 0.8% growth also well below both population growth (circa 2.4%) and inflation (4.6%).
This means that retail sales fell sharply in real per capita terms, to the tune of 6%.
Sales of discretionary items fell most heavily in December, reflecting the combination of falling demand and the hangover from Black Friday sales in November.
Source: ABS
The result augers poorly for the Australian economy, which is already mired in a per capita recession following three consecutive quarters of negative growth:
This 0.3% annual decline in real per capita GDP has been driven by a sharp 1.9% fall in per capita household consumption:
Based on this data, real household consumption likely fell again in Q4, extending the per capita recession.
The only thing stopping the economy from plunging into a ‘technical recession’ is unprecedented immigration-driven population growth, which is projected to remain turbo-charged in 2024:
Regardless, 2024 is shaping up to be another year whereby the nation’s economic pie does not grow as quickly as the population, meaning everybody’s slice of the economic pie will continue to shrink and living standards will continue to fall.
This decline will be led by Australia’s households, who are drowning financially under sky-high mortgage costs, rents, taxes, and the overall cost of living.
