How long can Australia’s unemployment rate defy gravity?
Because the latest batch of data portends a big rise in the nation’s unemployment rate in 2024 as rapid labour supply growth collides with the slowing economy.
SEEK has released its latest job ads and applications data, which is summarised below:
Job ads declined another 4.3% in November and are fast approaching pre-covid levels.
Given historical correlations, this portends a big rise in unemployment next year, as illustrated below:
More worryingly, the number of applicants per job ads lifted 2.9% from the prior month and is now tracking way above pre-pandemic levels.
This is also pointing to a sharp rise in Australia’s unemployment rate next year:
The sharper rise in applicants per job ad reflects the record growth in Australia’s labour supply owing to the Albanese government’s extreme immigration program:
Finally, to round things out, Tuesday’s NAB business survey showed that firms have reported an easing in capacity utililisation, which also points to rising unemployment next year:
The Albanese government is already on the nose with voters after engineering the nation’s worst rental crisis in living memory via its extreme immigration program.
A sharp rise in unemployment next year would likely see anger boiling over.
