Canada’s Trudeau fires warning shot at Anthony Albanese

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Just when you thought Australia’s immigration was mad, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said to Albo: “hold my beer”.

According to new data from Statistics Canada, the rate of population growth continues to smash records, as the country welcomed a record number of temporary residents, mostly through international student and temporary foreign worker programs:

Canada's quarterly population growth

The country’s population increased by about 430,000 during the third quarter to 40.5 million, the highest rate of growth in any quarter since 1957.

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Canada's population

According to the agency, population growth in the first nine months of 2023 has already eclipsed overall increase in any other full year, including the previous record set in 2022.

International migration has fueled this, with over 313,000 non-permanent residents arriving in the country over the last three months.

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Components of population growth

According to Statistics Canada, the majority of those non-permanent residents were work and study permit holders, and to a smaller extent, refugee claimants.

Last week’s speech by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle warned that record population growth is driving Canada’s rental crisis:

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“Shortly after immigration began ramping up in 2015, Canada’s vacancy rate—a measure of how many apartments and houses there are available to rent or buy—started to fall. The construction of new housing was not keeping pace with population growth”, Gravelle noted.

“Then, when newcomer arrivals picked up sharply in early 2022, that steady decline in the vacancy rate became a cliff. Canada’s vacancy rate has now reached a historical low”:

Canada rental vacancy rate

“If we look more closely at the data, we see rent inflation accelerated to 8.2% in October, a 40-year high, up from 7.3% in September and 4.7% a year ago”…

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“Canada’s housing supply has not kept pace with recent increases in immigration”.

“When we look at the five years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, the need for new housing grew somewhat faster than new construction”.

“Then, in the last year or so, demographic demand soared above the pace of new housing starts”:

Canadians are growing increasingly concerned about the impact of immigration on the country’s housing, infrastructure and services.

In a recent Leger poll, over three-quarters of respondents agreed that the increase in immigrants is putting a pressure on both the housing market and the health-care system.

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Compared to March 2022, the percentage of Canadians who indicated they want the country to embrace more immigrants than in the past has dropped to 9% from 17%.

A new Abacus poll revealed the number of Canadians who believe immigration rates are too high has jumped to 67%, up seven percentage points from July:

Canada immigration polling
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This negative view is shared by 62% of residents born outside Canada.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should take note of the rumblings in Canada.

Because Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is getting destroyed in the opinion polls and is headed for near certain defeat at the next election:

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Canadian election polling

It seems voters don’t like having their living standards crushed and being made homeless.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.