Last week’s national accounts data from the ABS was an absolute shocker and showed that the nation is mired in a per capita recession following three consecutive quarters of declining real GDP per capita:
Real household disposable income per capita also collapsed to decade lows in the September quarter:
In fact, the only thing keeping the Australian economy ticking over is the nation’s record population growth, which has grown the overall economic pie while everybody’s slice of the pie shrinks:
The Judo ‘flash’ PMIs for December were released on Friday, with the Composite PMI at 47.4 in December – a level that indicates private output contracted over the month:
“Underpinning the sustained decline in private sector activity was subdued demand conditions”, noted Judo Bank. “Incoming new orders fell for a third straight month and across both the manufacturing and service sectors”.
The PMI has now printed below 50 for three consecutive months, which suggests that Australia’s Q4 23 GDP may have outright contracted over the quarter, as suggested by the below CBA chart:
On the positive side, the RBA is likely done with rate hikes. If anything, we could see rate cuts in the second half of 2024.
