DXY was soft:
But AUD was even softer:
CNY still has concrete boots:
Brent looks like it wants to find the highest-cost marginal producer down near $60:
Dirt meh:
Mining meh:
EM meh:
Junk poised:
Yields fell despite the inflation miss:
Stocks loved it:
Goldman with US inflation:
November core CPI rose 0.28% (mom sa), 2bp below consensus and exactly in line with the prior three-month average. The year-on-year rate declined by one-tenth to 4.0%. The composition was somewhat firmer, as medical care services prices rose at a 14-month high pace of +0.6% and shelter categories—which are also fairly sticky—exceeded our expectations (rent +0.46% and +OER 0.50%). Auto prices were also stronger than we expected, particularly for used models (new -0.1%, used+1.6%). On the negative side, travel categories edged lower (lodging -0.9%, airfares-0.4%). Car insurance prices also decelerated as we expected (+1.0% vs. +1.9% in October), and apparel prices weighed on the core by 4bp due to holiday discounting that we would expect to reverse early next year. Core services inflation excludingrent and OER picked up to +0.44% from +0.22% last month but below the +0.61%pace in September. The trend in trimmed inflation continued to fall, with 6-month annualized trimmed core inflation slowing to 3.70% from 3.82% last month. Headline CPI rose 0.10%, as food prices increased 0.2% but energy prices declined 2.3%.2. With the CPI data in hand, we now estimate core PCE prices rose just 0.14% in November (mom sa). We will update our estimate after tomorrow’s PPI data.
Given housing and cars are still trending down, plus the energy price crash underway, US inflation looks cooked.
Fed cuts coming sooner rather than later.
AUD up.
