Here is what UBS had to say about the latest visa numbers:
Temporary visas in Sep spike to record >2.6mn, or ~10% of the population
A key factor supporting the consumer is the record boom of migration, which is lifting population growth. Temporary visas data for Sep-23 spiked even further, to a record high level of over 2.6mn, which is equivalent to almost 10% of the population.
Hence, it’s likely that actual migration (i.e. the ABS NOM concept) will continue to surprise to the upside.
After migration in the year to Q1-23 already jumped to a record high level of 454k, it seems likely that migration in the year to Q3-23 was above 500k, and perhaps even 600k.
For population growth, this means after it already lifted in Q1-23 to 2.2% y/y, which is around the fastest in ~50-years, population growth likely picked up even further to over 2½% y/y in recent quarters.
This is adding to inflation pressure in the near-term, especially via rents. Over time, this will improve labour supply, and help to ease some of the tightness in the labour market; but for now the bigger impact is boosting demand.
For further details and investment implications, see our ‘Big Australia’ deep dive. Basically, the UBS thesis of a ‘Big Australia’ just got even bigger.
My view is that this has only just started. 600k is the new 200k.
As we know, the tsunami of people is mainly coming from the Indian sub-continent. The Albanese Government explicitly and deliberately enabled it.
One the Albo’s first acts as PM was to pour money into visa processing to speed it up. Then, early this year, Albo visited India and signed several labour exchange agreements.
This included the Mechanism for Mutual Recognition of Qualifications, “Indian qualifications will be recognised in Australia”.
This agreement, which was clearly drafted by India, requires Australia to recognise all Indian:
- Senior secondary education qualifications awarded by a relevant board or council of senior secondary education or awarded by any other authority empowered by the Government of India.
- Technical and vocational education and training qualifications awarded by institutions approved by the All-lndia Council for Technical Education (AICTE) and/ or National Council for Vocational Education and Training (NCVET) and/or its equivalent body and State Councils for Vocational Training (SCVT).
- Higher education qualifications awarded by institutions authorised by the University Grants Commission (UGC), the All-lndia Council for Technical Education (AICTE), the National Council for Teacher Education (NCTE), as well as other equivalent bodies.
Australia is, therefore, required to recognise Indian vocational and university graduates to be “holding the comparable AQF qualification for the purposes of admission to higher education”.
That this agreement is transparently insane for any developed country has not slowed Albo one iota.
Everybody knows that Indian training is a cesspit of corruption, fraud and sub-standard outfits. All of which are now recognised in Australia as legitimate.
Today, any Indian with a two-week brain surgery degree from Cowabunga Uni can enrol in a nothing burger Aussie course, leap from their Uber in Mumbai, jump on a plane to Australia, rent a Tesla at the airport and begin work that very instant.
S/he needs no money, no contacts, no skills, no nothing.
To be clear, this argument is not about India or Indians. I am all for happy international engagement and cordial relations, top to bottom.
This is about Albo, and his view of what it means to be a developed country, to have borders, as well as how he views his obligations to protect Australian wages, access to housing, public services and the environment.
According to our PM, to be Australian is to live anywhere. To be exposed to the lowest living standards, the worst of education systems, the most pervasive fraud, the largest populace and class system the world has ever seen, one of the least progressive societies amid a ruined environment.
1.4 billion Indians living in this squalor can now enjoy much higher living standards in Australia at the price of a plane ticket. It’s much cheaper than coming via a people smuggler.
If 0.001% decide to upgrade – why wouldn’t they – 1.4m are on their way in short order.
Canada has already done this. Now, it has effectively shut its border owing to a terrorist attack. So Australia is the first cab off the rank for prospective Indians.
But get this. Albo’s final vision of subaltern Australia is that to reverse, slow and stop the flow of warm bodies, Canberra will have to ask New Delhi for permission or violate its agreements.
So far as I can tell, Albo hasn’t just lost control of Australian borders; he doesn’t think ‘Australia’ exists as an entity at all.
