Everything to the moon!


The Market Ear on the latest positioning.

GS repeats: There is no need for a recession

“Despite the good news on growth and inflation in 2023, concerns about a recession among forecasters haven’t declined much. Even in the US, which has outperformed so clearly on growth in the past year, the chart shows that the median forecaster still estimates a probability of around 50% that a recession will start in the next 12 months.This is down only modestly from the 65% probability seen in late 2022 and far above our own probability of 15% (which in turn is down from 35% in late 2022).”

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.