There is no Chinese recovery; meet Godot if you are waiting for it.
Credit for October was OK but not enough. Goldman has more.
- New CNY loans (flow, reported): RMB 738bn in October (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 484bn) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 655bn, GS forecast: RMB600bn
- Outstanding CNY loan growth: 10.9% yoy in October (+10.4% mom sa ann,estimated by GS); September: 10.9% yoy (+10.2% mom sa ann).
- Total social financing (TSF flow, reported): RMB 1.85tn in October, vs. consensus:RMB 1.95tn, GS forecast: RMB 1.8tnTSF stock growth: 9.3% yoy in October, vs. 9.0% in September.
- The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 11.3% in October (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), vs. 10.3% in September.M2: 10.3% yoy in October (+9.2% mom sa ann estimated by GS) vs. Bloomberg consensus: 10.3% yoy, GS forecast: 10.0% yoy. September: 10.3% yoy (+7.1% momsa ann)