Chinese property black hole eats economy


There is no Chinese recovery; meet Godot if you are waiting for it. 

Credit for October was OK but not enough. Goldman has more.

  • New CNY loans (flow, reported): RMB 738bn in October (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 484bn) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 655bn, GS forecast: RMB600bn
  • Outstanding CNY loan growth: 10.9% yoy in October (+10.4% mom sa ann,estimated by GS); September: 10.9% yoy (+10.2% mom sa ann).
  • Total social financing (TSF flow, reported): RMB 1.85tn in October, vs. consensus:RMB 1.95tn, GS forecast: RMB 1.8tnTSF stock growth: 9.3% yoy in October, vs. 9.0% in September.
  • The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 11.3% in October (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), vs. 10.3% in September.M2: 10.3% yoy in October (+9.2% mom sa ann estimated by GS) vs. Bloomberg consensus: 10.3% yoy, GS forecast: 10.0% yoy. September: 10.3% yoy (+7.1% momsa ann)

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.