DXY is firm again:
AUD could not hold the gains:
Nor the peg:
Oil is getting flushed in a big warning for global growth:
Dirt meh:
Miners meh:
EM meh:
Junk meh:
Yields sank:
But stocks are suddenly worried about growth and earnings:
The US economy is coming into land under pressure from monetary tightening, fiscal turning headwinds, post-COVID normalisation for student loans and crunching private credit.
The place to look for the most stress is still small and medium-sized business. The NFIB is starting to show material stress:
Thought labour hoarding is still rampant:
As the jobs market slowly loosens:
So far, the landing is soft. But if SMEs break on employment, it will turn harder and faster.
For AUD to take another leg down, we must see a hard landing in the US.
