Australian dollar faceplants as global economy lands


DXY is firm again:

AUD could not hold the gains:

Nor the peg:

Oil is getting flushed in a big warning for global growth:


Dirt meh:

Miners meh:


EM meh:

Junk meh:

Yields sank:


But stocks are suddenly worried about growth and earnings:

The US economy is coming into land under pressure from monetary tightening, fiscal turning headwinds, post-COVID normalisation for student loans and crunching private credit.

The place to look for the most stress is still small and medium-sized business. The NFIB is starting to show material stress:


Thought labour hoarding is still rampant:


As the jobs market slowly loosens:

So far, the landing is soft. But if SMEs break on employment, it will turn harder and faster.

For AUD to take another leg down, we must see a hard landing in the US.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.