Gavekal with the note.
The invasion of Gaza that Israel’s new unity government is planning in order to root out Hamas will be gruesome and protracted, with no easy way out. This means there will continue to be a risk that the Gaza conflict could metastasize, dragging in other regional forces such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and potentially Iran. But for now, a more general Middle Eastern conflagration remains a tail risk.
All significant parties—with the exception of Hamas itself—have powerful incentives to avoid a broadening of the war to the wider region. And so far they have acted accordingly.
