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TS Lombard with the note. US fiscal spending has begun to fall. This is one of several key planks in 2023 growth resilience.
Normal metrics to assess the 2024 economy is what we have but could prove less relevant to the outcome.
This may very well be a year when extreme non-economic factors (war and politics) drive the budget, the Fed and, in turn, the economy — rather than the usual reverse order of cause and effect.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.