Roy Morgan has released detailed polling on The Voice referendum, which is headed for a heavy defeat.
46% of Australians (up 2% in a week) now say they will vote ‘No’, compared to only 37% (down 2%) who say they would vote ‘Yes’ and a further 17% (unchanged) are ‘Undecided’ on how they would vote.
Roy Morgan notes that past experience with surveys conducted before previous referenda shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote, meaning the actual figure is likely to be a larger majority in favour of ‘No’ than indicated above.
Victoria and Tasmania are the only states in which more respondents say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’.
For the referendum to be successful, it requires both a majority of votes nationally as well as a majority of states (4 out of 6) to vote ‘yes’.
Thus, the referendum has minimal chance of passing based on these figures.
Voting is also split along party lines with Labor/Greens voters firmly in the ‘yes’ camp, independent voters (mostly Teals) evenly split, and everyone else in the ‘no’ camp:
I am more concerned about what happens after the referendum fails. Will the ‘yes’ camp turn feral and label the nation ‘racist bigots’? Or will they accept the result and move on?
Let’s hope for a peaceful outcome.
