The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday released retail sales data for September which came in hotter than economists expected.
Total retail sales rose by 0.9% (0.3% expected) over the month to be up 2.0% year-on-year. It was the strongest monthly rise since January 2023.
The below table from Alex Joiner summarises the results by category:
Sales were higher in September across all jurisdictions:
The next chart from Joiner shows retail sales per capita across durable goods and food:
Durable goods sales have fallen in per capita terms over recent months while food sales have risen slightly.
Meanwhile, Justin Fabo estimates that retail sales volumes were roughly flat over the September quarter:
Source: Justin Fabo (Macquarie Group)
The ABS said warmer weather, the new iPhone and an energy rebate in QLD explains the stronger sales in September.
Regardless, it is another data point arguing in favour of the RBA hiking rates at its Melbourne Cup meeting next Tuesday.
It is also another example of Australia’s burnout economy in action.
While per capita spending remains weak, overall spending is holding up courtesy of the rampaging 2.8% growth in Australia’s 16-plus population:
The Albanese government has its foot planted on the demand accelerator via its record immigration policy, while the RBA is desperately trying the slow the economy via rate hikes.
