Rental crisis turns diabolical as immigration ratchets higher

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On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released monthly and arrivals data, which suggested that net overseas migration (NOM) into Australia continues to push higher.

Over the August quarter, there were 144,000 net long-term arrivals into Australia – easily a record for an August quarter and nearly triple the 53,900 that landed in the same quarter of 2022:

Quarterly arrivals

In the year to August, there were a record high 639,400 net long-term arrivals into Australia:

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Net long-term arrivals into Australia

Abul Rizvi noted on Twitter the enormity of the numbers and that it means that Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) will break new records when the official numbers are released:

Abul Rizvi Tweet
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Indeed, there has historically been a strong correlation between the ABS’ monthly net long-term arrivals figures and Australia’s official quarterly NOM:

Australian net immigration

Justin Fabo from Macquarie Group has presented the data differently and shows why Australia’s NOM will skyrocket to new highs:

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Australian NOM

Source: Justin Fabo (Macquarie Group)

The ABS also released monthly visa data, which shows that net visa arrivals are landing at a record pace, driven by international students:

Net visa arrivals
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The below chart from Justin Fabo has broken these numbers down by category and shows the out-sized impact that international students are having on Australia’s NOM:

NOM Breakdown

Source: Justin Fabo (Macquarie Group)

These numbers are an unmitigated disaster for Australia’s rental market, which is already the tightest on record with vacancy rates across the combined capital cities tracking at just 1.0%:

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Rental vacancy rate

Source: CoreLogic

By running the biggest immigration program in history, the Albanese Government is driving renting households into severe financial stress, share housing or homelessness.

Renting households should be rioting in the streets at the injustices being perpetrated on them by the federal government.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.