Never count the east coast gas cartel out. After a few short weeks of price relief, it is back:
Chasing Asian gas prices:
There is nothing to stop the cartel from doubling local gas prices from here to bring them into line with export net-back. Albo’s $12Gj price cap does not apply to the spot market, which is insane, given it sets the price of electricity in the NEM.
I am happy to report that so far, wholesale power prices have not jumped with gas:
This is very unusual. Power prices should already be double where they are at.
Hopefully, it is the leading edge of a structural change towards gas being pushed out of its role as a marginal price setter as renewable penetration displaces it for extended periods. That is what happened in Q3:
We need more batteries to continue the process at night.
Once disconnected from electricity, the gas cartel becomes an inflationary issue largely for manufacturing, not broader households and businesses.
