‘Fear of missing out’ drives house prices higher

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Australian house prices continue to power on with CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index rising by 0.46% so far in October at the 5-city aggregate level:

CoreLogic month-to-date

All major capitals except Melbourne have recorded strong growth this month.

Home values at the 5-city aggregate level have now risen by 8.7% since bottoming on 29 January, with Sydney (11.2%), Brisbane (9.2%) and Perth (9.0%) leading the charge:

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CoreLogic rebound

The driver of the rebound is obvious. The Albanese Government’s record immigration program saw Australia add an unprecedented 626,000 people over the 2022-23 financial year, driven by net overseas migration of around 500,000:

Population growth

Source: Cameron Kusher (PropTrack)

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This extreme population growth has driven a dire shortage of homes to both purchase and rent, generating ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) across the market.

Rental vacancy rates have collapsed to an all-time low of 1.0% across the combined capital cities:

Rental vacancy rate

Source: CoreLogic

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Despite more Australians living in group housing or becoming homeless, rents continue to rise at a double-digit pace across the capital cities:

CoreLogic Rents

Source: CoreLogic

In turn, renters are desperately seeking to exit the rental market by purchasing their own homes. However, the supply of homes for sale have also plummeted 22.6% below the five-year average:

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CoreLogic listings

Source: CoreLogic

Too many people chasing too few homes has generated widespread scarcity and FOMO in the housing market, which is driving up both prices and rents.

You can thank the Albanese Government’s reckless immigration program for both.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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