Dire apartment shortage delivers 24% rent inflation

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The latest dwelling approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was depressing reading, especially if you are seeking an apartment to rent.

It showed that capital city unit and apartment approvals have fallen to their lowest level in 13 years, with just 56,000 units & apartments approved across the combined capital cities in the year to August 2023.

This was half the peak 111.700 approvals in the year to September 2016:

Apartment approvals
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The next chart shows that there were only 36,900 high-rise apartments approved across Australia in the year to August 2023. That is less than half the 78,100 high-rise apartments approved at the peak in the year to October 2015:

High-rise apartment approvals

The halving of apartment approvals comes at the same time as Australia is experiencing record population growth on the back of the Albanese Government’s unprecedented immigration program.

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According to the June quarter national accounts from the ABS, Australia’s population swelled by a record 626,000 in the 2022-23 financial year, driven by net overseas migration of around 500,000:

Change in population

Source: Cameron Kusher (PropTrack)

Domain’s latest rental market report for September shows that unit asking rents soared by 23.7% across the combined capital cities, led by the largest capital cities – Sydney (23.6%), Melbourne (22.4%) and Brisbane (19.6%):

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Domain unit rents

House rents are also rising swiftly – up 13.2% across the combined capital cities – but not by nearly as much as units:

Domain house rents
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Domain chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, estimates that the shortage is so bad that up to 70,000 more rental properties are needed to stabilise the market.

Worse, the shortage will continue to worsen as the population swells:

“We need between 40,000 to 70,000 additional rentals to balance out Australia’s rental market”, she said.

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“That is like adding all of the dwellings in the LGA of Newcastle into the market”.

“This is a significant amount of rental stock needed to balance out the rental market today, and not taking into account future population growth and people arriving from overseas and people relocating”.

Clearly, the Albanese Government is making the rental crisis worse every day by running the largest immigration program in this nation’s history:

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Net overseas migration

The first best solution to Australia’s rental crisis is to cut net overseas migration to a level that is below the nation’s ability to supply housing and infrastructure.

Otherwise, the housing situation will continue to get worse.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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