Goldman with the note.
As the previous concerns on battery raw material greenflation have subsided, the market focus is shifting to new dynamics in the battery industry leading to four pertinent questions: (1) Lithium prices have dropped meaningfully – what are the implications for battery prices? (2) Electric vehicle (EV) subsidies are being cut in Europe and China – will consumers continue to purchase EVs? (3) 2022-1H23 has seen EV policies globally gaining momentum – but looking ahead, are there more catalysts to support the battery TAM? (4) The recent round of intense capex investment globally has led to general oversupply in battery-related capacities – how should investors position in the battery value chain?
We answer these questions with our updated proprietary battery pack price and cost curve model, revamped battery supply-demand model with newly introduced regional EV production historical data and outlook, and introduce the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis for China BEVs.
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