DXY is holding:
AUD too:
CNY lol:
Oil and gold to the moon:
Dirt nope:
Miners looking to retest lows:
EM too:
Junk is through them:
Curve steepening rages on:
Pounding equity duration:
I still say the Israel war is contained. There are reports of missile and drone attacks from or in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. But they are all small and coming from resistance groups backed by Iran. A kind of armed and airborne virtual signalling for the Palestinian cause.
Will Iran press it towards a regional-wide guerrilla campaign against US and Israeli assets? Perhaps during the Gaza invasion.
But, these are still asymmetric actors. Unless they generate popular uprisings to stir official action, of which there is no sign, then the prospect of state-to-state regional warfare is still distant.
It is this base case that is keeping DXY at bay and allowing yields to rise with oil.
It is going to derail the global economy. As such, and assuming equities price it, AUD probably still has one more down leg.
