ALP support collapses below Coalition after Voice debacle

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New Roy Morgan polling shows that both primary and two-party preferred support for the Labor Albanese Government has fallen below the Dutton-led Coalition for the first time.

The Dutton Coalition would now win a Federal Election as ALP two-party preferred support plunged 4.5% to 49.5% and is now trailing the Coalition on 50.5% (up 4.5%) after all six States voted against the proposed ‘Voice to Parliament’ at the nation-wide referendum on Saturday 14 October.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows the Coalition leading the Albanese Government on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election last year.

The ALP’s primary support fell 3% to 32%, while the Coalition’s support rose 2% to 36%.

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Almost one-third of voters (32%), picked another party, including the Greens (14%), One Nation (4.5%), Independents (8.5%), and Other Parties (5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Index fell 4.5 points to 78, far below the neutral level of 100.

Now, a majority of 53.5% of voters believe the country is “heading in the wrong direction”, while fewer than a third, 31.5%, believe it is “heading in the right direction”.

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These findings are based on a Roy Morgan survey of 1,383 Australian electors conducted in the week following the referendum, from Monday 16 October to Sunday 22 October.

Roy Morgan’s result comes as a separate polling by JWS Research shows that Australians are deeply concerned about the cost of living, access to vital public services, housing affordability, and the economy and finances:

Voter concerns
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The fact of the matter is that the Albanese Government is making each issue worse with its extreme immigration policy, which is:

  1. Creating a rental crisis that is forcing financial hardship on tenants, forcing Australians into share housing, and pushing many into homelessness.
  2. Driving inflation higher as population demand overruns the supply-side of the economy, most visibly via the housing market. This will inevitably keep interest rates higher for longer, negatively impacting households with mortgages.
  3. The record labour supply growth will drive up unemployment and put downward pressure on wages, harming workers.
  4. The record flood of people is overcrowding vital public services and infrastructure.

I discussed these issues in detail in last week’s Treasury of Common Sense on Radio 2GB:

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The Albanese Government needs to stop virtue signalling and gaslighting and address the real issues impacting Australians.

Otherwise, it risks being a one-term government.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.