Earlier this week, Roy Morgan reported that unemployment rocketed to 11.0% – its highest level since March 2021 – due to record labour supply growth outpacing job creation:
The historical correlation between Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure and the ABS’ points to rising official unemployment:
The average number of applications per job ad has also soared way above pre-pandemic levels, according to SEEK, which signals a significant lift in ABS unemployment:
On Thursday, the ABS released the official labour force data for August, which showed that the nation’s unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7% amid a 64,900 rise in jobs.
However, total hours worked fell by 0.5% over the month and the nation’s underemployment rate rose 0.2% to 6.6%:
Underemployment has also risen by 0.6% over the year, whereas unemployment is 0.2% higher than a year ago.
Clearly, the unemployment dam is yet to officially burst. Although the signs aren’t good with labour supply growth clearly outpacing demand.
