JPM with the note.
Oil prices are back up 27% since 2Q23, posing downside to growth
• Some of the move owes to stronger demand (1/4), but a larger supply shock (3/4) will be a drag
• Our model suggests global GDP could be damped by 0.5%-pt (ar) over two quarters if prices sustained
• Jump in Brent to $120/bbl would cumulate to a 60% jump from 2Q23, pushing expansion to near stall